Speech

I would like to begin this speech making some clarifications. I am not a native English speaker, and therefore I will talk a little bit slow to try to be clear. 

The last time I conducted a speech in English, talking about the content of my thesis, in the end, I saw such confused expressions on the faces of my colleagues that I would like to blame not my topic but my English.

I would want to talk about the importance of the nonlinear approaches for the forecast of time series data because it is now my everyday topic,

but I remembered those faces and I realised that an audience like this deserves a speech more fundamental. 

That's why I am here to pick a word about three basic concepts that I think we should remember today: gratitude, probability and future.

Maybe it is about the language or the culture, but one most familiar words in Spanish is "Gracias".

And today we are closing one of the steps in our professional lives, and I think it is an appropriate expression. ´

Being thankful is our most significant capital.

It helps us to be humble, but it also helps us to appreciate who has been with us during this road.

//Muchas gracias// to the ones who supported us,

those who we left years ago, at home, and those who are in our souls today. 

//Muito obrigado// to those who we found in the way.

When Joseph Conrad said in The heart of darkness "that we live as we dream, alone". He also should have included a chapter about the master's degree. 

//Merci à tout le monde// for each one of the moments and experiences since the time I arrived here.

//Grazie Mille// for the loyal friendships, //spasiba bol'shoe// for all the love. 

//mulțumesc foarte mult// for all the lessons and toughts and //Xie Xie// for the knowledge transmitted by different ways.

//Viele dank Deutschland//. This experience changed my life.

But being thankful is not only about mentioning all the happenings included in a period,

it is also to know who we are and what is our role in the universe.

What I've got from my first-semester statistics refreshment course is that probabilities were fundamental in the months to come.

And sometimes I think that we are so close to zero probabilities.

Think for a moment on the chances to be here and now. I will tell you mine.

I am the son of an indigenous man who was born in one of the poorest regions in the centre of México, and the mother of my mother was picking cotton in the northern México and the south of the US almost a hundred years ago.

The probability of being here, on the other side of the Atlantic and talking to you in a foreign language is so close to zero. 

And believe me, you can even feel the burden of zero when you're sending your application number 76, and you still do not get a call for a job interview.

If you have some ideas on how to get one, I am still open.

But being in a zero position does not make us meaningless. On the contrary. 

It increases our efforts, and it helps us to realise how privileged we are to be in this place at this moment. 

It is also a reminder of how responsible we should be about our position.

In this configuration of zero probability, we found each other, and we are not marginal anymore.

Thank you all for being an important factor to increase my chances.

Finally, I would like to talk about the future,

I will use some of the words that Justice John Roberts, president of the American Supreme Court, gave some weeks ago:

From time to time in the years to come, he said, I hope you will be treated unfairly so that you will come to know the value of justice. 

I hope that you will suffer betrayal because that will teach you the importance of loyalty.

Sorry to say, he continued, but I hope you will be lonely from time to time so that you don’t take friends for granted. 

I wish you bad luck, again, from time to time, so that you will be conscious of the role of chance in life and understand that your success is not entirely deserved and that the failure of others is not completely deserved either.

Whether I wish these things or not, they’re going to happen.

And whether you benefit from them or not will depend upon your ability to see the message in your misfortunes. 

To see, even there, your probabilities.

Thank you so much for all.